确定湖泊参照状态过程中频率分析的精度估计

汪靓; 华祖林

doi:10.7524/AJE.1673-5897.20140604001

1. 河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室, 南京 210098;

2. 河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心, 南京 210098;

3. 河海大学环境学院, 南京 210098

作者简介: 汪靓(1981-),男,博士,研究方向为水环境模拟与生态水力学,Email:right628@126.com

通讯作者: 华祖林, E-mail: zulinhua@hhu.edu.cn

基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展计划课题(2008CB418202)

水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项课题(2012ZX07103-005)

国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179052

51379060)

江苏省"青蓝工程"

江苏省高校优势学科建设工程

江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划(CXZZ13_0271)

中图分类号: X171.5

Estimation Precision in Frequency Analysis Process for Calculating the Reference Conditions of Lakes

1. Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lakes of Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

2. National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

3. College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Corresponding author: Hua Zulin, zulinhua@hhu.edu.cn

Fund Project:

摘要: 确定湖泊参照状态是建立湖泊水质基准的关键步骤之一。以频率分析为基础的方法,如湖泊群体分布法、频率分析法、三分法等广泛地应用于参照状态的研究中;但是,由于湖泊观测数据具有关联性以及难以确定概率分布,这些研究都未给出参照状态估计的置信区间。滑块自助法无需确定观测数据的理论概率分布,同时能很好地克服数据关联性引起的问题,给出这些方法得到的参照状态的置信区间。以太湖为例,分析了确定频率分析过程中,正态分布法和普通自助法的缺陷;结果说明这一方法适合于确定湖泊参照状态的精度。

Abstract: Estimation of reference conditions of lakes is one of the key steps for establishing criteria of lakes. The methods based on the frequency analysis, such as lake population distribution approach, frequency analysis approach, and trisection approach, were applied to calculate the reference conditions of lakes. The confidence intervals of reference conditions can not be given due to that the observational data is correlated and it is difficult to determine the probability distribution of the data. The problems caused by data correlations can be overcome by Moving Blocks Bootstrap Method and the confidence intervals could be worked out without any information on the distributions of observational data. As a case of Taihu Lake, the defects of Normal Distribution Way and common Bootstrap method in frequency analysis processes were shown. The results illustrated that the method was suitable for estimating the precision on reference conditions of lakes.

Key words:

确定湖泊参照状态过程中频率分析的精度估计

通讯作者: 华祖林, E-mail: zulinhua@hhu.edu.cn

作者简介: 汪靓(1981-),男,博士,研究方向为水环境模拟与生态水力学,Email:right628@126.com
1. 河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室, 南京 210098;

2. 河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心, 南京 210098;

3. 河海大学环境学院, 南京 210098

收稿日期: 2014-06-04

基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展计划课题(2008CB418202)

水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项课题(2012ZX07103-005)

国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179052

51379060)

江苏省"青蓝工程"

江苏省高校优势学科建设工程

江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划(CXZZ13_0271)

关键词:

Estimation Precision in Frequency Analysis Process for Calculating the Reference Conditions of Lakes

Corresponding author: Hua Zulin, zulinhua@hhu.edu.cn

1. Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lakes of Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

2. National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

3. College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Received Date: 2014-06-04

Fund Project:

Keywords:

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